Scenario Planning

In traditional forecasting, it relies on the projections that paint a picture of the future of the business landscape based on the current state (Wade, 2012). Scenario planning on the other hand looks at multiple factors that determine the future that is most likely to emerge. The primary difference here is the wide range of variations that scenario planning can produce contrary to traditional forecasting. An organization must look at multiple possible scenarios for the future of an organization instead of just one possibility. Using traditional forecasting, it is possible that past and current states do not correctly prepare the organization for future uncertainties. This could lead to alternate future that is not planned for, thus creating a situation where the organization is not prepared and could miss potential opportunities. Scenario planning enables a team to sit down and systematically formulate possible scenarios based on emerging trends and driving forces to produce flexible strategies that give an organization the agility to react to different scenarios in the future.

One infamous prediction that came true was Nikola Tesla’s prediction of smartphones in 1926 (Big Think, 2017). Nikola Tesla was a visionary in his time and produced one of the most important inventions that is still widely used to this day: alternating current (AC) electricity supply systems. Nikola Tesla (Big Think, 2017) was quoted saying:

"When wireless is perfectly applied the whole earth will be converted into a huge brain, which in fact it is, all things being particles of a real and rhythmic whole. We shall be able to communicate with one another instantly, irrespective of distance. Not only this, but through television and telephony we shall see and hear one another as perfectly as though we were face to face, despite intervening distances of thousands of miles; and the instruments through which we shall be able to do his will be amazingly simple compared with our present telephone. A man will be able to carry one in his vest pocket."

This is a direct correlation to smartphones of today that can fit in a vest pocket that provide technologies such as video calls, voice calls, text messaging, and other collaboration services. The prediction that Tesla made was almost precisely correct and has been shown that sometimes, predictions can be true. The instantaneous interactions at great distances is driven from forces such as social and business. The ability for people to communicate with other people for social reasons was a large driver for the success of this prediction. Another driver is the business aspect of communications. The widespread communications capabilities have allowed an international market to be possible. Without the development of collaboration devices like smartphones, the dynamic international business market would be very difficult.

  

References

 Big Think. (2017). Nikola Tesla Describes the Modern Smartphone — in 1926. Retrieved from http://bigthink.com/words-of-wisdom/nikola-tesla-2

Wade, W. (2012). Scenario Planning: A field guide to the future. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.